We appear tonight to be down to four Republican saviors and two Democratic ones. Six Saviors Scamming …
We note that none has referred to how he/she/it will deal with the costs of social, health and military programs that are in excess of available revenue, presently being borrowed. One might, as such resulting debts run into trillions already, suppose that a serious presidential candidate would address them. But no. We are left to guess.
In pursuit of that, there are two available scenarios that we can identify:
First: Continue borrowing until none will lend any longer. That will ruin both the economy and the currency, after a booming inflation. Simple, and no politician has to vote for any genuine cuts in welfare or militarism. However, those presiding over general economic failures haven’t seen significant post-collapse careers generally; ask the shade of Herbert Hover.
Alternatively, one can actually reduce spending to fit the revenue in hand. Live within one’s means, so to speak. As that sharply reduces government handouts and any political promises, we will let the historians dig up any historical proponents of the policy. We can’t think of any at the moment.
So what do we expect in real terms as we proceed? Granting that it is guesswork, especially in the face of economic statistics that we no longer believe, it is this:
- There will be some sort of economic crisis. Any of several will do. All the Federal Reserve thin-air money pumped into real estate and stocks will evaporate at once, dissipating maybe, half their value. It has been phony wealth anyway.
- A lot of enterprises previously funded by these erstwhile funds will stop functioning, dumping a load of folk onto unto unemployment. Unemployed taxpayers won’t pay taxes. Some more cities will imitate Detroit, for the same reasons that bankrupted Detroit. That is, putting political goals over reality. We won’t call it ‘recession’ any more, returning to the older and more honest, term last applied in about 1929.
- Messers Trump and Sanders will prove to be forerunners of a new order, where the main qualification will be no connection with what went before.
- If Christian morality revives (no bets) and if no massive wars initiate (even fewer bets) then the economy will slowly turn around. It will be slow because so many will be siphoning sustenance from it and will be reluctant to give that up.
- We will not consider civil order here, sticking to the economy. Sorting that out will take a decade, maybe two if the politicians and bankers charge into negative interest rates and outlawing cash along the lines now under consideration in the U.S.
We have noted that where these policies are already appearing, say Japan, people are hoarding cash. Not so dumb, seems to us. But what is really needed is politicians who will put their money (not yours) where their mouths are. If “honest politician” isn’t an oxymoron …
6. And of course, no matter who is in charge, he/she/it will have to reduce payments significantly for pensions, healthcare, welfare and military adventures. Or accomplish the same by destroying the value of the currency. Unless a war is used instead. Make your bet; we know no more than anyone else. ..
Maybe our wineglass at dinner insn’t large enough? Maybe we may cheer up tomorrow …