Will Syria Pit he New Allies Against the New Axis?

SyriaSyria is in the news, sort of. The presence of ISIS is prominent; the realities, less so. This is how it appears to us; you need not agree. Disagreements welcome, in fact.

A nasty dictator Bashar Assad, is fighting a civil war for his political and likely, corporeal, life. He is part of a non- Sunni Moslem minority and he is a client of non-  Sunni Iran. But most Syrians are Sunni Moslems.

Therefore, most rebels are Sunni Moslems, the Syrian majority. Unfortunately, those rebels are split between ISIS and non-ISIS branches that fight each other as well as fighting Assad. Got that?

The non- ISIS rebels were doing well, Assad was losing, so the non-Sunni Iranians jumped in to help Assad. That wasn’t quite enough because the Gulf Arabs and Turks who are all Sunni, were helping the rebels. So, Russia  jumped in recently to help Assad,  and Iran, though they claimed to be there to stop ISIS. Now the rebels are being bombed by Russian airstrikes and the Assad forces are coming back with that help.

In evident response, the Gulf Arabs, the Turks and undoubtedly the U.S. behind the scenes, are motioning as if to send Arab and maybe, Turkish troops into Syria under the same pretense used by the Russians, of attacking ISIS. The reality will be to support the rebels against Assad. We call that: “proxy war.” Yeah …

It can be hard to discern who is actually carrying the ball under these sorts of circumstances. Never mind asking who are the good guys; there aren’t any.

If you follow the link at the beginning, you will see that the related article is worried about starting WWIII with this. We doubt that, none of the parties is ready for such conflict and certainly none can afford it. Not that such facts have ever prevented a desired war, of course.

So, we recommend that those interested watch to see whether Arab/Turkish forces intervene in Syria; if they do, the U.S. may be presumed to support that. And using the ISIS fig leaf, there will likely be combat between Russo-Iranian and Turco-Arab (American backed) forces while maintaining as much plausible deniability as may be.

What will likely follow should that occur, we leave to you; we have no idea except that it will be hard on a lot of people.

That’s how it seems to us; you need not believe that we are correct. If, we assume, we were smart, we would also be rich and famouus. Maybe own our own island to retreat to at need.  Instead, we simply look forward to our glass of wine at our next dinner. That’s real. So is the photo above of what the Syrians and interested external parties are doing.

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About Jack Curtis

Suspicious of government, doubtful of economics, fond of figure skating (but the off-ice part, not so much)
This entry was posted in Economics, Goverrnment, Politics, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Will Syria Pit he New Allies Against the New Axis?

  1. Jim Teague says:

    A Turkey/Saudi intervention will immediately attack the most effective anti IS coalition, the Kurds and destroy their best chance to finally have a home free from Turkish, Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian attack. The Turks won’t go after the Syrian/Hezbollah/Iranian/Russian coalition, but they will go after the Kurds in Turkey, Iraq an Syria because of their own long protracted war with PKK inside their borders and their own dreams of a reestablished Ottoman Empire. The US will hem an and haw since Turkey is in NATO and Kurdish men, women, children will be massacred. Turkey is already doing that to its own people. The Kurds have earned this chance to build a nation though they too have lots to work through with the different Kurd factions. These are the people who saved the Yazidis off from Mount Sinjar. They have in fact given Iraqi some recovery time. People are running to the Kurdish areas from all of this slaughter, not to IS areas,Iraq, Iran, Saudi or Syrian areas.

    • Jack Curtis says:

      I guess we will have to see what happens … and even then, it will likely be hard to decipher from here. I have heard that the Kurds have been receiving considerable U.S. help, at least in Syria. What a mess!

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