Reprise: Syria’s Assad dictatorship was an Iranian client and a minority Shia Moslem family running a majority Sunni Moslem country as a police state. An ‘Arab Spring’ uprising threw the place into civil war when the Assads refused to leave under pressure. The Iraqi Sunni militia ISIS attacked the Syrian rebels, diverting them from overthrowing the Assad dictatorship. The U.S. has provided airstrikes against the ISIS fighters. Whether the U.S. interests might support the Syrian rebels or the Assad government has remained unsaid.
Three very significant events that suggest the coming direction of the country have occurred. First, the U.S. President has abandoned the protection of Israel in favor of a nuclear deal with Iran that favors that country’s accession to nuclear status, never mind that it continues to threaten not only Israel but the U.S. Second, that Russia has entered the Syrian struggle in support of the Assads with troops, tanks and aircraft. And finally, that the Europeans are lining up behind the Assads. It would appear that the West is reacting to the Arab oil price war by favoring Iran in Syria.
As the Arab-induced low oil prices are a Godsend for consumers, attacking those who are providing them is evidently serving other interests. Russia needs a higher oil price to ease its financial decline; most desperately so does Venezuela. And the U.S. fracking industry too. Never mind consumers, who won’t recognize what is going on anyway.
If this fits, we should expect a higher oil price in the relatively near future. We don’t know, of course. And a return of Syria to the pre-chaos Assad Iran client status over hundreds of thousands of dead, departed and and impoverished citizens is indicative, not conclusive. But so it goes in our best of all possible worlds …
Histoey buffs will recall that Britain, after WWI, set up the Middle East with Sunni Syria under Shia government and Shia Iraq under Sunnis. We can hear the old Romans murmuring: “Divide and conquer.” Unfortunate that Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and President Bush, (pere) invaded Iraq in response, leading to son George’s invasion and destabilization following. With the Assads back in power in Syria with a new U.S./Europe/Iran axis replacing he oily Arabs, maybe things will return to what in the Middle East, passes for stability.
We doubt it. But we don’t know anything … (What is Russia getting out of this? beside a higher oil price?)