Sausi Arabia has already announced it intention to have nukes if Iran does so. At a guess, the Arabs won’t wait. But there’s another historic player that has not been heard from, one in which much change is occurring very quietly.
Turkey and Iran have both claimed Middle Eastern hegemony in history; both are Moslem. The aftermath of WWI left Iran under its Moslem Shah and Turkey a ‘democratic’ secular state pushed into place by Kemal Ataturl, who recognized the crippling effects of Islam on a modern state.
The Shah was undermined (with help from the CIA) and replaced by a Moslem theocracy; a problem for the United States ever since. (Be careful what you ask for, right?) Turkey struggled with its economic backwardness until it was rejected for rapprochement with the European economy and in reaction, seems to have turned toward resurgent Islam. Today’s Turkey is increasingly arresting folk for disrespect toward its advertisedly Moslem Presient; it appears to be reverting from both its secular and its democratic status.
Accompanying these reversions, Turkey is backing away from its working relationship with Israel, joining the enemies of that state in Moslem solidarity against the Jews.
Turkey sits at the junction of the Christian and Moslem worlds. It was unable to rise to the economic level of Europe and is now apparently turning its attention back to Islam in rejection of Europe. It seems also to be in the process of rejecting democracy, as is from what we see, necessary for an Islamic state, at least in the Middle East. (Opinion!)
Meantime, the European states that Turkey had wished to join, are self-destructing economies unable to restrain their profligate spending, the disease that is weakening them.
The U.S. is weakening from the same condition as Europe and that weakness is attracting Russia and China and Iran into the resulting vacuum. When the cops leave the streets, the bad boys come out to play.
Turkey has teamed with Israel; it is now rejecting that in favor of its fellow Moslems in Arabia. Sunni Turkey is the natural opponent of Shiite Iran but the Turks are past conquerors and not Arabs. Rebuffed by failing Europe, will Turkey aim once more at Arabia as Iran is doing? Too soon to tell.
But it is worthy of notice that Turkey’s President seems to be treading the same path followed ahead of him by Russia’s President Putin: Increasing authoritarianism, rejection of Europe and evolving aggression toward neighbors At this point, that last applies only toward Israel. Stay tuned …