We were ruminating recently upon Murphy and his well-known law, one that like Obamacare, Congress will not repeal regardless of rhetoric. Unlike Obamacare thoug, Murphy’s is a simple law: “What can happen, will happen.” That seems built into our universe and surely ought to be found in the Old Testament somewhere. But we search in vain for the Book of Murphy. His law is nonetheless if not Holy Writ, physically and statistically inescapable. We have been thinking about what that means.
First, as we wrote recently, we noted that the American stock market reflects in its prices, nearly double the market value of the enterprises property, products and markets listed therein. Some half the stock market’s value then, is emotion, or air or hokum or however you wish to characterize it. Such vacuoles are renowned for their tendency to collapse unexpectedly. That is rather like the unexpectedness of a blind man’s fall as he treads the edge of a cliff yet such events are somehow inevitably unexpected when they occur. And as prescribed by Murphy, they always occur at some point.
Another such is the fact that known spendthrifts always at some point, run out of scroungeable credit and are bankrupt. The same is true of governments; our leaders debating where next to take our “Forever War” ignore its financing for a reason: there isn’t any. It is all on the Fed’s manufactured money and credit, secured by an overpromised future. That awaits Murphy and his already prescribed Wiley E. Coyote moment.
What happens when you arm most of the departments of your government with military style arms and ammunition, sprinkling SWAT groups liberally throughout? Why, they will be used, of course. Chunks of government must at some point, justify their existence, right? The alternative is for them to disappear quietly into that dark night; have you ever heard of bureaucrats willingly doing that?
You may note that this would have been the fate of a substantial chunk of U.S. military after the folding of Iraq and Afghanistan; now Iraq, Syria and all the newly discovered Islamic Threats will be used to head off such reductions of spending magic money. What can happen, will happen …
This could go on, but we will stop with Mr. Putin’s recent warning, somehow overlooked by most of the media, that if NATO interfered with his pursuit of rebuilding the Russian Empire in Ukraine and elsewhere, he is ready to use nuclear warfare to prevent such obstacles to Russia’s manifest destiny. And we note that the media concern over the Iranian nuclear program seems to have evaporated as we cozy up to the the Ayatollahs against ISIS. And North Korea, we read today, is emphasizing tactical nuclear missile development while China will soon have nuclear missile submarines off U.S. shores. Looking at all that, what can happen? And at some point, why will it not? Murphy rules …
Maybe his job is to clean up after us, whom have hardly ever seemed to do a very good job of it. We don’t know that, of course. But we do notice that to date, none of these possible events have yet taken place. Who know, perhaps they won’t..?