Watching for the Fed’s next “easing” (dumping cheap/fake money into the economy) is like betting on the breakup of ice in the Tanana River. Both events seem equally likely and those who get one exactly right can make some money while everybody else, loses. A lot of folk appear to be watching as Business Insider points out.
The Dems desperately need the oncoming economic collapse postponed until after the election; their guy can’t make it with a defunct stock market, busted banks and several times current joblessness but all know that’s what’s coming. Senator ‘Financial Genius’ Schumer (D) yelled at Fed Chairman Bernanke right out in public to get the money flowing. The pressure on Helicopter Ben must now be several times that faced by the Alvin research sub at the bottom of the Mindanao Deep.
Helicopter Ben got his nickname alluding to dumping money out of helicopters to combat financial woes; he’s not famous for Greenspanian snatching away of punch bowls just when the party’s getting good. He’s a money manipulator from day one and so far, has alternated between flooding the banks with more or with lots more and is a prime enabler of the governments’ deficit spending. He’s been quiet recently; the betting is when he’ll open the money floodgates again, this time in concert with the E.U. Europe has similar problems plus a fake ‘Austerity’ (i.e. reduce government spending) policy that was D.O.A. at birth.
The voters in the E.U. and the U.S. both aren’t willing to see their benefits reduced merely because the government hasn’t any money to pay for them; France just changed Presidents over that and you can bet Obama and Romney noticed.
Republicans should like Ben to douse the lights before the election so they can blame it on Obama. Unfortunately, it’s going to be decades before recovery can start (with no bets on whether it will) and whoever inherits the fall will probably go out again for failing to fix things. See, nobody is going to fix a government mismanagement calamity this big and most government activity at all likely will prolong it. A very –interesting– time to ‘win’ an election, huh? Reminds of King Pyrrhus’ victory on the battlefield, when he said: “Another such victory and we are undone!”. So the betting says Ben is going to fold and join up with the E.U central bank and maybe some others world-wide in an orgy of funny money/credit to stave off the inevitable so long as possible. (Which isn’t what it used to be…)
Since every politician with debt problems (most of them) wants Ben to do that, and the only opposition is a few economists who defend reality while being ignored by politicians, it seems the way to bet. You may want to cache a few valuables under the mattress; I wouldn’t bet Euros and Dollars will meet that description indefinitely.
You might make some money betting on the date of the Fed announcement; it has to precede the election to qualify. And if global warming somehow fails to keep the Tanana River ice-free in the coming winter, you can maybe make a few bucks betting on that. The 2012 date was April 23, if that helps.